So Robert and I were texting about the NBA trade last night, and he very rudely reminded me of the pending Nelson Cruz suspension. As I’m sure you all know, if the Miami New Times report is substantiated by Major League Baseball, Cruz will face a league-mandated 50-game suspension for first-time PED offenders.
The options as I see them are:
1. Trade for a new right fielder
2. Look internally for a new right fielder
3. Trade Nelson Cruz for _______
4. Some combination of the three
There are problems with each of these choices.
While the Upton trade probably sets the market a little lower for CarGo and Stanton, we are now in a position of “needing” a right fielder, which drives the prices back up for the Rockies and Marlins. Plus, with Upton off the market, those teams will naturally raise their “ask”, because we have fewer viable trade options (your basic law of supply-and-demand). Personally, I’m not too fond of trading half of our farm’s top-10 just to get one of them, especially at the cost of Profar, but that’s just me. If we go this route it is basically a permanent solution, meaning Nellie probably gets traded for whatever is available (translation: not much; see below).
We don’t have any corner-outfield prospects that are even close to major-league ready. Murphy doesn’t have the arm strength to play in right every day, and playing Leonys there means he and Gentry are in the lineup every single day – not our best option offensively or for our bench depth (not that Wash even knows he has a bench at his disposal, but whatever, the point is the same). I think the best we can do internally is platoon Moreland and Olt interchangeably at 1B and RF, with Fat Elvis occasionally spelling one of them at 1B when they need a day at DH. This is a temporary solution, as the suspension is expected to be 50 games. However, it’s hard to call almost a third of the season temporary, when you remember the hole the Angels dug for themselves during the first five weeks last year, and that we are already missing our premiere power bat from the last half-decade.
Trading Nelson Cruz wasn’t - and isn’t - going to be easy. Anybody Jon Daniels called pre-MNT (pre-Miami New Times) was already going to low-ball a return for Cruz. He’s a late bloomer on the wrong side of 30 (delayed prime = early decline; he turns 33 on July 31st), he relies on power (bat and arm) that presumably would start to decline as he gets even older (a barely league-average batting average and inferior K/BB rates will not help prolong his career), and is suspect in the field (see: Game 6, 2011 World Series) despite what some defensive “statistics” might tell you. Now when you throw in the seemingly-inevitable 50-game ban he faces to start the season, what would even be considered a fair return? He may play in 105+ of the remaining 112 games, but he may only suit up in half that many if he has another hammy episode or stomach virus, etc. Post-MNT, his value is at an all-time low.
Let’s say you’re Jed Hoyer, GM of the Cubs. You were one of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball in 2012. Jon Daniels calls, and offers ou 112 games (maximum) of Nelson Cruz in 2013 for one of your decent non-closer relievers or a 5th/6th starter. Are you taking that trade? You played David DeJesus 148 games in the outfield last year (100 in right field), with a Cruz-like batting average (.263) and only 9 HR and 50 RBIs (admittedly he is their leadoff hitter, which inhibits RBI totals). DeJesus plays multiple outfield positions, and Cruz can always DH in interleague play. What’s a reliever compared to adding Nellie's bat to the lineup for two thirds of the season? Now let’s take a look at their contracts. Cruz is owed $10.5 million for 2013 and then becomes an unrestricted free agent. DeJesus is under contract for 2013 plus a team option for 2014. He is owed $5.75 million for 2013 if they exercise the option (which includes a buyout), or $10.75 million for 2013 AND the team option for 2014 – only $250k more for two years of DeJesus in right field than one year of Cruz (plus DeJesus at another outfield position if he's not shipped out). I’m not pretending the Cubs are hard up for cash, but Hoyer and the new front office are trying to make smarter decisions than prior management did. DeJesus was worth 9.3 WAR for the Royals from 2005 through 2007. He’s six months older than Cruz, but his game has never been built on power; he hit .289 over his eight years in Kansas City. He suffered markedly low BABIP numbers in Oakland and Chicago in 2011 and 2012, respectively, compared to his career norms. Translation: he is due for either a very cost-effective bounce-back year which will rival (if not mirror the power numbers of) Nelson Cruz’s value in 2013, or he has simply lost a step and will never be a 3 WAR player again. We’re looking at the same eventuality with Cruz (power decline rather than speed decline), but with a higher cost (Cruz's salary plus the pitcher that is traded) and the chance that he walks at the end of the year. “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t”, right? I think the Cubs would rather keep DeJesus (for one or two years) and whichever pitcher it is that JD would target, than give up a productive member of the pitching staff (they’re certainly not giving up a prospect) for an equally-risky-yet-more-expensive gamble in right field (which subsequently forces them to reshuffle or trade DeJesus or Soriano and the rest of the outfield). This is all hypothetical of course, but I don’t care. If I were the Cubs I wouldn’t make that trade. If Nelson Cruz can’t be traded for a relief pitcher on one of the worst offensive teams in Major League Baseball, what can we realistically do with him?
There is a remote option I didn’t mention before; call it “2b” to the Olt/Moreland “2a” plan. Moreland moves full-time to RF and Kinsler to 1B, to open up 2B for Profar. Long-term I think Kins has to move to corner-outfield (or be traded), because Olt is more valuable at 1B, and then 3B when Adrian gets too old, and I honestly have no insight if Ian can play RF or not. We know he can crow-hop with the best of ‘em, but in terms of sheer arm strength I do not know if he can do it. Also, given Olt and Profar’s ages and service time, I think management (or at least Wash) is more inclined to give Olt an everyday job (temporarily) and keep Profar in AAA, than to bring Profar up knowing they will be sending him back down sometime in May.
The fourth option I mentioned is some combination of the three, but more likely a combination of 2 and 3. They could trade Cruz for a bag of baseballs just to be rid of him, and proceed with plan 2a or 2b. If they’re unsatisfied with the results at mid-season, they can switch to plan 2b/2a, or go ahead and make a (blockbuster) trade for an available right fielder. Nothing is off the table with the Rangers front office.
My sincere hope is that Nelson Cruz either knowingly took legal supplements that are incorrectly being portrayed as illegal PEDs by the Miami New Times, or that he unknowingly took a banned substance to help recover from the two-month stomach virus that plagued him last winter. If the former proves to be true (like appears to be the case with Gio), then I imagine he is off the hook. Also, I suppose there is a slim chance that Cruz will come out in the next few days and vehemently deny the allegations, followed by MLB being unable to corroborate the Miami New Times report (even if he is truly guilty), therefore mitigating the entirety of this email… but I’m not holding my breath on that one. (Editor's note: this post was originally published prior to Cruz's denial submitted by his attorneys.) Now, I will direct this quandary to the man who it would seem put us in this situation in the first place, by his own actions, whether malicious or not. What do we do now, Nelson Cruz?
